(RepublicanPress.org) – Media outlets reported on the widespread panic that echoed throughout the Democratic Party on the night of Joe Biden’s poor performance during the first presidential debate. Recent surveys confirm the legitimacy of those concerns.
The day before the debate, RealClearPolitics’ polling average showed Donald Trump holding only a 1.5-point lead. Within a week, his lead rose to 2.9 points, and the latest average shows the former president with a 3.3-point lead over Biden.
So far, Biden has not indicated that he would consider dropping his bid for a second term. Still, some Democratic strategists and political operatives are suggesting he should withdraw from the race.
Likewise, some pundits are speculating that the down-ballot impact of keeping Biden on the ticket could lose the Democratic Party to both the White House and both chambers of Congress.
CNN Analyst Speaks Out
On July 9, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten discussed the impact of race between Biden and Trump on the outcome of congressional elections in November with anchor John Berman.
Using a series of charts, Enten explained that a Trump victory would likely mean Democrats would lose both the House and Senate. The data analyst pointed out that Republicans lead Democrats in generic national polls.
Noting that Biden is “down four, five, six points” in those surveys, Enten said Democratic congressional candidates could “only run so far ahead of Joe Biden.” Turning his attention to Republicans, he said they probably lead in the polls because Trump is outperforming Biden.
Berman pointed out that he had talked with Democrats running for office who said they could use Biden’s poor polling figures to their advantage. According to him, they would tell voters that the possibility of a second Trump term “makes it all that more important to elect a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate.”
Downballot effects of a Biden loss are clear for Democrats. The House would likely be gone. GOP has opened up an edge on the generic ballot.
If Biden loses, the chance of Democrats holding the Senate is close to zero because of the map and WV being an easy GOP pickup. pic.twitter.com/8tMK2giqDK
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 9, 2024
Berman asked Enten if that was a realistic position to assume. Enten said recent history didn’t support that position.
For instance, Enten pointed out that the same party won the presidency and the House five times since 2000. The only time voters split that ballot was in 2012 when Republicans picked up a few seats. However, he noted that Democratic candidates won most of the popular vote that year despite losing seats.
Enten also said the 2016 and 2020 Senate races mirrored the presidential voting during those elections. “The fact is, straight-ticket voting is the lay of the land these days,” Enten noted.
“The idea that Democrats down-ballot can somehow outrun Joe Biden to such a great extent to somehow win control in the House or maintain control in the Senate […] seems to be an unlikely proposition,” Enten concluded.
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