Nebraska Contemplates Big Change for 2024 Presidential Election

Presidential election 2024 sign on American flag.

Nebraska is considering a pivotal change to its electoral vote system that could impact the 2024 election significantly.

At a Glance

Congressional Republicans are pushing for a last-minute change to Nebraska’s presidential voting system.
The proposed change would shift from a split allocation of electoral votes to a winner-takes-all system.
This change could increase the number of electors for Trump from four to five in Nebraska.
A tie at 269 electoral votes each between Trump and Harris could result, sending the decision to the House of Representatives.
The House election outcome in November could become crucial, as Republicans are defending a slim majority.

Republicans Push for Electoral System Change

Nebraska is being urged to switch from its current hybrid system of allocating electoral votes to a winner-takes-all system, influenced by figures such as Gov. Jim Pillen and Sen. Lindsey Graham. The state’s hybrid system, similar to Maine’s, assigns two electoral votes to the statewide popular vote winner and one vote to the winner in each of its three U.S. House districts. This proposal is aimed at bolstering former President Donald Trump’s chances in the 2024 election.

Previously, attempts to enact this change have failed, but Congressional Republicans are pushing for a special legislative session to revisit the proposal. Six congressional members wrote letters in support, stating, “Congressional Republicans are demanding an 11th-hour change to Nebraska’s presidential voting system in a move that could transform the electoral calculus and tip the race to Donald Trump in the event of a photo finish.”

BREAKING: The GOP push to change how #Nebraska awards its Electoral College votes and boost former President Donald Trump ran into reality Monday as a key lawmaker, State Sen. Mike McDonnell, announced he won't back a change.

First in @NE_Examiner: https://t.co/mV2MjDyAW7

— Aaron Sanderford (@asanderford) September 23, 2024

The Motivating Factors Behind the Push

By changing to a winner-takes-all system, Republicans hope to increase Trump’s electoral votes from four to five. Sen. Lindsey Graham recently emphasized the change’s importance for the 2024 race, stating the chances of seeing this change before November as “50/50.”

“To my friends in Nebraska, that one electoral vote could be the difference between Harris being president or not, and she’s a disaster for Nebraska and the world,” Graham said.

If passed, the amendment could nullify the “blue dot” in the Second District, which Omaha residents turned Democratic in 2020. Nebraska and Maine uniquely allocate electoral votes by congressional district, making them critical in tight elections.

Legal and Political Hurdles

Despite the growing momentum, the change faces significant hurdles, including the requirement of a two-thirds majority in Nebraska’s legislature. Republican support is estimated at 31 or 32 out of 50 seats, indicating that bipartisan cooperation may be essential. State Senator Mike McDonnell, a former Democrat turned Republican, opposes the winner-takes-all change, complicating the legislative push.

“As members of Nebraska’s federal delegation in Congress, we are united in our support for apportioning all five of the Nebraska’s electoral votes in presidential elections according to the winner of the whole state,” – read the Nebraska delegations letter.

Moreover, legal concerns have emerged regarding changing election rules after early voting has already commenced, with ballots being sent to Nebraskans abroad. This adds another layer of complexity to the push for change.

Potential Implications for the 2024 Election

In a highly competitive election, this winner-takes-all proposal holds the potential to shift the electoral balance. Current polls suggest Vice President Harris could win the required 270 electoral votes by securing Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Nebraska transitions to a winner-takes-all system, Harris would need to secure additional southern states to maintain her lead.

Voters and politicians alike are closely watching this critical decision, which underscores how even the smallest shifts in electoral processes can have ripple effects in determining the highest office in the land. Whether Nebraska will join the 48 other states in adopting a winner-takes-all system remains to be seen, but the stakes couldn’t be higher as the 2024 election draws near.